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For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "serious repercussions" in August if Russia's president carried on obstructing truce negotiations, he eventually enacted major restrictions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision substantially affected Putin's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly developed by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, Trump has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would essentially favor Putin for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative effectively undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, the former president continues to treat the war as a simple land disagreement, like handing Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a destroyed region of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to eliminate it so it ceases to functions as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in position the currently separated oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's proposal would force Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk region. In addition to favoring Russia with land that its forces have been failed to capture in more than a ten years of warfare, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, leaving Putin a clear way to the capital should he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "Every extremist belief system and practices must be condemned and banned." As if to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the history – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia committed to a truce and a restoration of occupied land in eastern Ukraine to the government – for what reason should the international community trust Russia this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "decisive unified armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not only block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude member states from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from rebuilding his reduced troops, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Reaction

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, like Trump, to act through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not