🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.