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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.