🔗 Share this article

Each time the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for problems.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.

Over the recent period, this smuggling operation has caused Lithuania's primary air hub into suspension 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the airspace was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are adamant they are dealing with something far more hostile than simple smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian government has announced an official alert.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers previously, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it started as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses organised crime to impact adjacent states," a government minister stated.

The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to make a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, nightly, security forces head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are primarily seen after dark.

Patrols establish temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any company that can figure out how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Underlying Aims

The frontier line is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently attributed the activity to "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The suspicion is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into easing sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as legitimate following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Economic and Social Impact

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."