‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The shockwaves of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As military actions on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the vital shipping lane, stocks of cooking gas are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Businesses appear the hardest struck: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a representative of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have closed - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already operating at reduced capacity as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no food items - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and officials say stocks are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about the vast majority of those shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and hoarding has been sparked by false reports. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Concern is genuine," the text reads.

According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Refined product supply remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but uneven distribution - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Retailers are exploiting the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold at a premium."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more urgent issue is simple: how to get the next cylinder.